Get started

Search in ideas for "TONE VAYS"

Bitcoin: Hodlers won't be rewarded...A few key factors: Price action analysis using Time@mode logic shows weekly timeframe is in control, not 2M anymore. Most trend signals in the weekly are bearish signals, distribution takes longer, at the same price level before quick breaks to the downside, that last the SAME time as the mode duration. They then rebound for the same amount of time, as per T@M rules. Price didn't make a higher high above recent resistance zone , it merely retested the downtrend mode in the weekly (and right on time) to then fall rapidly. Tone Vays turned bullish Dumb money bought the last part of the uptrend using Square cash app (also longs at finex increased dramatically, when before people were selling into the rally from 6425) MTV Crypto Expert Simpsons episode explaining Bitcoin Stock to flow guy in denial Golden cross dumb money buyers got rekt, then they were all going on about how it's normal to dump after the signal, that it was alright since it used to pamp after such ocurrences (as if the past always repeats the same...they forgot one thing, they now swim with sharks from CME ). Range expansion down from the mode, after an 11 week climb to retest the level. Now...no need to panic, simply shift your energy towards thinking how to produce returns in this market full of opportunities. On one hand, volatility is big, so tradeable swings are quite juicy. On the other hand, there's a ton of inefficiencies in futures and options that can be easily arbitraged for insane profits with very low risk (for now). Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by IvanLabrie
13
THIS CHART LOOKS SHITY ! DOWN TRENDI AM BTC STANDARD GUY . AS UGLYOLDGOAT AND TYLER JENKS ( R.I.P GRANDPA THAT I NEVER HAD) DESCRIBED IT I THINK THERE IS A PLACE TO BITCOIN IN PPLS DAY LIFE AND THE LAST THING I WANT TO LOSE MORE THAN I LOST ALREADY. I MADE A CHOICE FIRST IM A CHARTIST - A NEW ONE, MATURE AND MESSY. VERY VERY MESSY. AND IM LEARNING EVERY DAY TO CHART. THIS IS WERE ALL THE Q&A R EXIST ALL DESIGIONS, FEARS, HAPPINESS, TEARS, MACRO CROWD DESIGIONS, BIG PLAYERS AND MARKET MOVERS ALSO THE PPL THAT R NOT PARTICIPATE IN TRADING ALSO HERE BCAUSE SITTING ON THE BORDER OR NOT KNOWING ABOUT THE GAME IS ALSO PART OF THE MACRO GAME. IN ANY MARKET NOT ONLY CRYPTO. AFTER THIS PROLOG - PLZ ANSWER, DO YOU C THIS CHART BULL ? IF YOU LOOK ON THE TREND - YES IT IS IT IS BULLISH AS FUCKING SHTRONGOL BUT WHAT KEEPS IT UP ? THIS IS WEEKLY CHART AND THERE IS NO VOLUME AND I CARE LESS ABOUT VOLUME ON CANDLES ( THAT ALSO DECLINES AND LOOSING FUEL) BUT IT DOESN'T TELLS YOU HOW STRONG IS THE TREND. VPRV IS TELLING YOU THIS. AND - WHERE IS IT? GREEN BOX ON THE VPRV IS A FIFTH OR LESS THAN PREVIOUS YEARS ALSO FOUND NEW ( TO ME ) DOWN TREND CHANNEL THAT REJECTED ALREADY 5 TIMES - ORANGE ARROWS. USUALLY IF PRICE HITTING SAME RESISTANCE SEVERAL TIMES IT TEND TO BROKE - BUT 5 TIMES ALREADY IN 3 YEARS...? AND IN DECLINING ANGLE? THE YELLOW CIRCLE TELLS ME THAT THE TREND CHANNEL IS LEGIT- SO THE NEXT LOW IS WHAT ? 2500-2000$?? TONE VAYS GONNA GET 2 STEAKS FOR HIS BET ? LOOK AT RSI BREAKING UNDER 50, MACD - SAME. THE GREEN BOX IS THE PLACE WHERE WAS THE LAST SIGNIFICANT VPRV FROM WEEKLY PERSPECTIVE RIGHT NOW WE SITTING ON 50 EMASMA AND ORIGINAL S.A.R( LUCID S.A.R IF YOU SEARCH IN INDICATORS) MOVE TO 8200 PROBABLY WILL FLIP THE S.A.R AND BREAK THE EMASMA- AND THEY R USUALLY NOT CHAPPY INDICATORS ON BIG TF AS WEEKLY THE CHART JUST A CREATE ANOTHER LOWER LOW ... IT LOOKS LIKE FROM 08.2016 LESS AND LESS NEW MONEY COMING IN OR MABY THERE IS MORE MONEY COMING BUT NOT ENOUGH IN AMOUNT THAT NEEDED. ENOUGH TO OPEN "BITCOINS WALLET CHART " SOME HUGE SLEEPING WHALES, SOME HUGE DEAD WALLETS WITHOUT KEYS SOME CRYPTO EXCHANGE WALLETS THAT MOVES IN AND OUT OUR BITCOIN THAT WE TRADE . AND HUGE NUMBER OF WALLETS WITH MICRO AMOUNT OF SATOSHIS. ADOPTION AMONG SIMPLE PPL DECLINING WITH MULTIPLY ALTCOINS- ITS CONFUSING - "BITCOIN.COM" / "BITCOINSV" AND ALTS AND SOME HARD BITCOIN PERSONS THAT STARTS EYEING TO "ANOTHER GREAT UNDERGROUND FARYTALE MONEY" THATS WHY TETHER PROBABLY WILL B THE CRYPTO TREASURY DEPARTMENT ...THEY GONNA PRINT TETHER AS MUCH AS THE ENVIRONMENT NEEDED TO KEEP IN NOT ONLY HUGE AD/PROMO CHARITY FUND CAN HELP SPREAD THE IMPORTANCE OF BITCOIN- IM WATCHING THIS MARKET SINCE END 2017 UNCONDITIONALLY UNBITCOINERS HAVE MUCH HIGHER VOICE THAN BITCOIN STANDARD PPL SO THIS IS MY 50+ CENTS HOPE PPL THAT I TAGGED WILL NOT BAN ME FOR MY MATURE SHIT SORRY FOR MY ENG- LEARNED IT IN LAST 1.5 YEARS SINCERELY ME
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by justclueless123
2
LONG GLOBAL MARKETS FLOW INTO BITCOIN 2020If a black swan event is in play BTC will become the Sovereign fast safe haven for investors. The world is switching from analogue to digital so to speak. 50K could be on the cards cointelegraph.com cointelegraph.com www.cnbc.com finance.yahoo.com blockonomi.com bitcoinist.com www.youtube.com COINBASE:BTCUSD BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BITFINEX:BTCUSD BYBIT:BTCUSD GEMINI:BTCUSD BITTREX:BTCUSD FOREXCOM:BTCUSD BITBAY:BTCUSD CEXIO:BTCUSD OKCOIN:BTCUSD CURRENCYCOM:BTCUSD BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTS BITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGS BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITTREX:BTCUSDT POLONIEX:BTCUSDT HUOBI:BTCUSDT BINANCE:BTCUSDC COINBASE:BTCUSDC BINANCE:BTCUSDTPERP COINBASE:BTCGBP COINFLOOR:BTCGBP FOREXCOM:BTCGBP BITFINEX:BTCGBP CEXIO:BTCGBP BITBAY:BTCGBP BITFINEX:BTCGBPSHORTS BITFINEX:BTCGBPLONGS BTCCHINA:BTCCNY COINBASE:BTCEUR CRYPTOCAP:BTC OTC:GBTC BITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGS
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by MaverickTrading
1
BTC Google Trends Analysis and FUDIf you go on google Trends and look at the countries with the highest interest in Bitcoin its: Nigeria, Southafrika and Ghana! If you look at what their search for bitcoin included youll be surprised! Top search last year was a song by Mr Benson called bitcoins. Trends overall look like total disinterst, its probably the same people getting rekt over and over again and they still put their new money in just to get fkd again. More KYC and AML this year will be a hard hit for crypto in general and i would like to see the seizure of multiple exchanges like Bitmex and Bitfinex to make the space more trustable as a whole. Also bitcoin never had to deal with a financial crisis before and might be the biggest risk reward asset out there. "Bitcoin Price 'Will Struggle' in Big Financial Crisis, Says Investor. A partner at venture capital firm Blockchain Capital says Bitcoin is a safe haven in the long run but it might not withstand severe crises." As also pointed out bitcoin cant be confiscated per say but a seizure of exchanges in multiple countries and a trading ban, plus all node owners responsible for money laundring will drive the market down and in the next crisis bitcoin will be portrait as The public enemy No1. The powerplay is still portraing bitcoin as an absolute negative to climate change and this card will be played mark my words. Remember as more money flows into bitcoin it moves out of the healthy circulation and hodling is basically a form of money hoarding which is really not beneficial to the overall economy thats why there are negative interest rates being implemented to get people to buy stuff. Conclusion: Bitcoin was a great invention , imho by an intelligence agency or a group of people that were contracted by them. If you study the history of the US gov involvement in Drug imports etc and cash illicit financing of all kinds of entities, it really only benefits shadow entities that do not want to move huge piles of cash, beyond borders. Never ment for day to day transactions only for a kind of "Proof of transaction" on the blockchain. Big slow illegal payments over buying a coffee any day. Bitcoin was said to combat the fkd up financial system but as roubini rightly pointed out it has transformed into an even more unregulated and manipulated system where scams etc run rampant. I am still highly interested in the argument that only XX percent of all crypto transactions are for illegal activities, but if you subtract all the trading im sure the REAL number would be staggering. You could even include the spoofing, washtrading, pump and dump group activities into the illegal percentage. If the bitcoin system was made by a non govermental entity with a philantropic worldview in mind and did not think of all the bad things it would be the gateway for the creator was probably autistic, so it might have been craig wright after all lol Peace out fkers no trading advice if you want to lose your money go watch tone vays
GEMINI:BTCUSDShort
by revorevo
BItcoin: Can it break the big downward channel?Can it break the big downward channel it follows since the bull run in June 2019? Technical (bullish) signs: -> Price is about tries to break through the since June 2019 respected resistance of the channel -> Bearishness of MACD is stalling (on 3D even gets bullish slowly) -> Fib 0.236 holds support since November -> The TI Indicator (Tone Vays Version of TD Sequential) flipped green on the monthly Fundamentally seen, BTC is rather bullish if you take into account, that fears of a recession (especially in USA and EU) and about the crisis in Iran increase.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by nico14
2
My main conditions to enter a Bitcoin long position.Hello everyone! Welcome to my first publication on tradingview. Here is my story, my preparation and my plan for the next year or so. This idea is meant to be an easy system for people who babysit kids in stead of positions or have a hard time filtering the noise in the market in order to find a decent entry into a long position. Its mainly a tool to show friends and family how I personally want to pick my next entry. Off course I welcome all of you to give your opinion and tell me why this is a horrible or good system. I'm not a professional analyst, trader or investor. I'm a noob and following this idea is at your own risk. I can only say I'm confident enough to use it as a guideline for myself. As many people I bought my first Bitcoin at the end of the bullrun in oktober 2018, my second mistake. I had been told about Bitcoin in 2012 but didn't look into it much at the time and forgot about it, that was the first mistake. The gains that were made in the first 2/3 months quickly vanished when I bought altcoins and held onto them for too long. It took a while for me to get a more healthy view on the market and change my bias. Determined to make better decisions I studied a lot and started following youtube heroes such as Jacob Canfield, Krown's Crypto Cave, Tone Vays and Willy Woo, Cryptosomniac and Naeem Al-obaidi. They helped me understand this market (to a certain degree). Buying in at 6100 mid 2018 didn't look that great though when it crashed at the end of november 2018. In hindsight the signals were crystal clear but I failed to see the reality. I was biased and emotional and I didn't really have a solid framework. But I reckoned that the 200 weekly sma would be a great entry point if bitcoin was to act as it did in the previous cycle. Buy at 200 sma, let history repeat itself, and most importantly: let the market come to me and forget everything else (especially the news and every sub 3000 prediction). That was the plan. If price were to fall below the 200 sma and close a 12h candle I was going to close the position manually. No emotions, just reasoning, patience and big balls. Finally I got it right! I then added to my position during the following 2 re-accumulation zones around 5500 and 8000. My last action was selling half of it at 10300 which is not great but hey its not that bad either. Today its safe to say the fiat bottom is in and it's very possible that we will have to wait a complete cycle before we get a similar situation as on the 16th of december 2018, even though we are currently aiming for the 200 ema again. I move my buy-orders with these moving averages at this moment. Once filled we cut our losses if bitcoin was to close a 12 hour candle below the 200 sma. If not we are golden ;) So the guideline for catching the bottom is buying at the 200 weekly ema or 200 weekly sma, whichever one is the lowest at the time. A buy at the lowest one should give you the best entry but basically any entry between these 2 moving averages has been great in bitcoins history. These touches are highlighted by the grey and yellow arrows on the chart. Those that missed the bottom and/or still got some fiat left need to spot a period of re-accumulation before dumping their bolivars into Bitcoin. You don't want to get into a position when the price just mooned, is crashing or is trading in between the moving averages and thus undecided on direction. The following system for entry isn't going to give the best entries but it has historically only given good signals and imho they are less risky. First, Bitcoin has to be in a bull market. We have a bullish posture when the 10 ema, the 21 ema and the 55 ema are on top of each other. Red above yellow, above green. Simple. This is highlighted on the chart by the blue rectangles. We then look for a deeper correction. We get that when 2 subsequent weekly candles close below the red 10 ema. The close of the 2nd candle forms what i call a baseline (this is probably not the best word to describe this level but just for the sake of making a point I'm going to call it that way). This level is going to become our stop-loss level if we get a buy signal some weeks later. We try to enter after a period of accumulation so a break of this level after entry invalidates our assumptions and we have been in a period of distribution in stead of accumulation, hence our stop-loss at this level. We get the buy signal when Bitcoin can close above the red 10 ema and also close at least 2 of the next 3 candles above the 10 ema. We buy on the close of the fourth candle, highlighted on the chart by the green arrows. In order to follow this system one only has to watch the price of bitcoin once a week on Sunday evening which is great for those who don't have the time to follow the market closely, or their positions in particular. The aim is to hold the position until the next top. Catching the top will be the hardest part of the trade but you will know for sure you missed it when the red 10 ema crosses the yellow 21 ema. Historic trendlines could possibly give us a clue, they most probably will be of some value in determining a local top or bottom, or even the next ATH. As of now my best guess is that the Bitcoin price models on Woobull.com will be the main chart to look at for guessing the top. My crystal ball however told me that the next top is at 115.000 USD and the following bottom at 27.000. These targets are derived from Plan B's stock 2 flow model, being an overshoot of 2x the model price and a dump to around half the model price. We'll have to see how that works out. I will in the future make a post when I believe the top is in. I will also update the chart when a buy signal occurs. That's it for now. Thanks for reading and please comment, I would really appreciate your opinion. I don't give a fk about likes though.
BNC:BLXLong
by kozaboza
2
ANOTHER MATURE ANALYZE- 200SMA WHO IS THE LEADER?BASICALLY WE ALL KNOW 3 THINGS 1. BITSTAMPS CHART IS ONE OF THE MOUST LEGIT AND EARLY ONE - FOR BTC 2. BITMEX CHART IS THE CHART WITH MOUST LIQUIDITY AND VOLUME IN THE BTCUSD PAIR 3. BTC1 THE ONLY FULLY REGULATED CHART SO AFTER SCROLLING IN VARIOUS CHARTS SUDDENLY 2 THINGS CATCH MY EYE AND I WONDER HOW IMPORTANT IS THIS - BITMEX CHART HERE NOT SO USEFUL - ALSO 200 SMA ON BITMEX AND BITSTAMP R VERY SIMILAR BUT LOOK AT BTC1 !? ITS 200SMA IS WAY WAY LOWER JUST ALMOST UNDER 6990$ AND SECOND THING - AS I NOTICED BTC1 HAVE THE ONLY TDST ON 7498$ AND TO THOSE WHO USE TD INDICATOR OF TONE VAYS - KNOWS HOW IMPORTANT THIS LINE AND HOW PRICE REACT WHEN IT TOUCHES IT ... SO 1. R WE GOING TO 7000$ - VERY LIKELY 2. WILL WE BREAK IT - I GUESSES BECAUSE AS WE KNOW SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE USUALLY HAVE TO BE BROKE TO START A NEW PHAZE ( AT LEAST FOR MY THINKING) 3. ALL THAT HAPPENING UNDER 200 SMA THAT WILLY WOO THINK SUPER EXTREMELY IMPORTANT - WILLY PLZ SOME COMMENT :) SINCERELY ME
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by justclueless123
Bitcoin 4-Hour Chart Analysis #1 - 8/09/19Let’s take a look at the 4-hour Bitcoin chart! Click the link below for a brief analysis of the most recent 4-hour trading period. youtu.be Follow me on Twitter: twitter.com Enjoy this content? Consider using my affiliate links listed below. I’ll receive a referral bonus when you do. Sign up for Coinbase and purchase at least $100 worth of Bitcoin to receive $10 of free Bitcoin directly into your account: www.coinbase.com Sign up for BitMEX and trade Bitcoin with leverage. Use my link and you’ll receive a 10% discount on trading fees for the first six months: www.bitmex.com DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. I’ve spent the last 18 months studying trading after never having made a trade in my life. I thought it might be fun to share my thoughts as I continue to learn and progress. Much appreciation to Tone Vays, Tyler Jenks, and Sawcruhteez for being willing to share what they’ve learned over their many years of trading. Below are the indicators and trading strategies that I use. Click the links to learn about them. Candlesticks, Chart Patterns, & TD Sequential: tonevays.com Parabolic SAR: school.stockcharts.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CrazyGabey
Is there a valid case for a possible 2800 BTC correction?Okay guys, there has been a lot of talk from certain prognosticators like Tone Vays about Bitcoin correcting down to 2800, below the 2018 all-time low. Is there even a possible technical scenario that can support such an outlandish correction? Let's take a look at it now. I dug back into the history of the 1-week candle chart to see if I can even make sense of such a claim, and my goal was to simply find some type of scientific evidence that it could happen, barring a black swan event. Looking back to the previous 2014 high point and adding a pitchfork that takes into account the low point in 2015 and the all-time high point of 2017, we can view a trading channel and ascending center line. I created a set of fib circles that starts at the 2017 high point and the point of capitulation before the BIG DUMP of 2018 to find possible pivot points. We can see a possible pivot point coming up soon at the 2.618 fib circle, which I believe will be a drop. BTC could break to the up-side, but that would mean that the bear market we previously experienced would have ended in the shortest cycle that we have seen in the history of BTC. What we do know is that the normal market cycles since the inception of Bitcoin have gotten longer each time, never shorter. That's why I think we will see a pivot to the down side once we reach the edge of the 2.618 circle. What also makes me think that we will pivot to the down side is the fact that we would finish the bear cycle in a time frame that would not cut it short for the first time in history. If that happens, we would propagate towards the next possible pivot point, which would be near the 3.618 fib circle boundary. The price could swing up before that 3.618 line, but we have the possibility of another swing to the down side once we reach the line. The chances of another swing to the down side might be 10% or less, but it's possible. If it swings down again, notice that we are headed towards the center line of the pitchfork. Continuing a trend in the negative direction to that center line would land us right around 2800. Keep in mind, this would consider the negative possibilities at all swing points, which are statistically low, but possible. Even though the chances are slim, it is still possible. But would it mean that all of the predictions about a $1,000,000 Bitcoin are out the window? No, not at all. Even if this happened, the overall trend in history would still be rising. A $1,000,000 Bitcoin would still be on track and possible within the next couple of years, I don't think this would ruin those chances. It's just something to think about. But when you consider that the great majority of prognosticators change their minds on a daily basis, and CONSTANTLY get their predictions wrong about where we are headed in the short-term, I'm not so trusting of their opinions. Just in the last 2 weeks, we've had COUNTLESS people calling for a $16,000 Bitcoin in the short-term. But as soon as this current correction hit, we don't hear a word about it. None of this short-term predicting makes a hill of beans difference anyway. If someone were to buy right now, at $9,582 which is the price at the time I am writing this, they'll still experience exponential gains over the next few years. It's the traders that I worry about, the ones who jump in the market looking to get rich overnight, and panic-sell the minute BTC experiences a correction after they FOMO in during a run. I'm no Nostradamus, and I don't claim to know what will happen in the next 5 minutes with any cryptocurrency because this market is viciously wild. And the only financial advice I COULD give anyone is that they should either invest what they are willing to lose in the short term, or be patient and wait it out for the long term. But I'm not a financial advisor. I'm just the guy who first got excited about Bitcoin when it was twenty five cents. Yes, I'm that guy. I wanted to get $100 worth and play around with it for fun. I'm kicking myself to this day. But in ten years, will we be saying the same thing about a $9,582 Bitcoin??? We've got to take it all into perspective! Please check out my short 2-part video series on my YouTube channel at the links below. They are only 5 minutes each. Like and subscribe, and comment if you will! Is There a Case for a $2800 Bitcoin Correction - Part 1 Is There a Case for a $2800 Bitcoin Correction - Part 2
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by carltonzone
4
Wave 1 of the New Bull CompletedBelieve we are still in a down trend from $14.5k run up. This despite Tone Vays and entire crypto world determining we are long. The bounce we just had to $13k roughly hit the 786 fib level, and sell off occurred soon thereafter. I believe we are still on our way to $6-$8k and will consolidate and bounce from there. It may not be a very long consolidation period, but expecting late August/early September 2019. There will be plenty of mini breakouts and bounces along the way, but rest assured we are headed down to consolidate. The entire market needs it, the bulls are worn out with a lower higher, and this market, though not in sheer magnitude, is a baby bull from 2017. The patterns are the same, and the psychology is the same as well. Expect some wild mood swings. If we pass $13K another time before we hit $8k, a new analysis will be needed.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Casey22
5
Sawcruhteez Strategies: How to BUY THE DIP Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process Throughout the past six months I have been calling for a return to $1,000. I was convinced that $3,200 was not the bottom for a number of reasons and now it appears that I was sorely mistaken. There are two types of mistakes when it comes to trading, ones that cost money and ones that cost opportunity. By not buying in during the first quarter of 2019 I missed out on some huge opportunity, but I didn’t cost myself any capital. When close to the top or the bottom of a major market cycle it is very important be okay with missing out on opportunity. Many who bought sub $4,000 also bought when the price consolidated $6,000 and took a stop loss when it broke down. Many did the same at $7,500, $10,000 and $12,500. After accounting for the losses, buying the bottom is often far less lucrative than it may seem. I was selling those prices and now I have the desirable opportunity of buying back in cheaper, eventhough it is far from the lowest prices of the quarter. I believe that there is a 75% chance that the bottom is in. That percentage will increase to 100% if we can put in a solid higher low above $6,200 and then a higher high above $8,200. Those chances are more than enough for me to start scaling in. If we do get a higher low / higher high then want to be fully entered. Everyone tells you to “buy the dip” but most do not go on to explain how. I will be using a combination of Dollar Cost Averaging and dip buying in order to increase my exposure to Bitcoin. My full strategy along with multiple additional options are outlined in this two part post. The topics covered will be: Buying the Dip with Moving Averages, Buying the Dip with Trendlines and Fractals, Dollar Cost Average by Time, Dollar Cost Average by Price, Daily Dollar Cost Average, Psychology and Risk Management. The first part will cover tactics for Buying the Dip The second part will cover Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging Both parts will touch on Risk Management and Psychology Buying The Dip With Moving Averages My preferred approach is using Exponential Moving Averages to scale into a dip when the asset is in a confirmed bull market. I also use EMA’s to determine the trend. If the 50 W EMA is moving up, with the price above, then it is a confirmed bull trend. After determining that the trend is bullish I have decided to increase exposure. Now I will use the 50 and 200 EMA’s and zoom into the 1D and 4h charts in order to time my entries. Using those areas of support I will set Good-Until-Cancel Limit Orders. In general I will do something along the lines of: 4h 50 EMA: 10% 4h 200 EMA: 20% 1D 50 EMA: 30% 1D 200 EMA: 40% 4h EMA DCA 1d EMA’s As price decreases I increase the exposure and improve the cost basis. Ideally the price will spend very little time below the 50 Day EMA. Instead I would want to see a sharp bounce from the 200 EMA and a close back above the 50 EMA. If the price spends much time below the 50 Day EMA then it will roll over and there would be a large risk of a death cross. When buying the dip using EMA’s I do not like having a set stop loss on the books, in the event of a spike low that would wipe me out right before the bounce. Instead I will use the death cross as my stop loss, as well as a potential area to flip my position and go short. This is why it is important for the price to rebound sharply after testing the daily EMA’s for support. This is less likely when the EMA’s have only recently crossed and have not established a proven trend. Recently crossed EMA’s are the first sign of a reversal, they are too immature to be considered an established trend. Therefore I will be quick to exit my position if the price struggles to stay above the 50 and 200 Day EMA’s, which currently waits in the $5,000 neighborhood. Do not assume that the Moving Averages that I use are the best. Different durations should be used for different assets and different time frames. In general higher volatility calls for shorter term MA’s or EMA’s and shorter time frames do as well. I prefer Exponential Moving Averages because I have found that they are better at identifying areas of support and resistance and they also tend to provide less false signals than Simple Moving Averages. To learn more about using Moving Averages to signal entries / exits and identify areas of support and resistance refer to: Deep Dive Into Consensio with Tyler Jenks Confirm Entries with Horizontals and TL’s As always it is important to confirm entries with other indicators. My favorite indicators for buying dips are Exponential Moving Averages, Horizontal Support, and Trend Support. When those are all in confluence then it represents a low risk, high probability opportunity to buy the dip. It is quite common that those areas of support line up with one another. If the price is in a confirmed bull trend then the EMA will be trending up with the price above. There will often be a trendline that is established from the higher lows that is near to the EMA. There are currently a number of trendlines that can be drawn on BTC and we notice that the 200 EMA on the 4h chart is slithering right in between two of them. The 200 Day EMA is doing something very similar with the two lower trendlines. This is exactly what I like to see. It shows that we are in a strong trend and that there will be a ton of support waiting on a pullback. What is even more important than trendlines is areas of horizontal support. These can be drawn using prior areas of horizontal resistance. I strongly prefer using the weekly chart when drawing horizontals because the important price points usually become much more clear. As we can see the buy areas identified by the 50 and 200 EMA’s on the 4h chart and Daily line up exactly with areas of prior support and resistance. This is very important confirmation for me when I plan on Buying the Dip Using Moving Averages . If the entries are not in line with horizontals then I will make adjustments to my orders or pass on the entry entirely. Seeing a confluence of demand is very important to me and I will always use Trendlines and Horizontals to confirm entries signaled by the Moving Averages. Let’s consider the entry price if price pulls back to $5,000 and all of the orders get filled. Assuming that I have $10,000 that I want to enter on this dip: 30% at $5,800 40% at $5,100 20% at $6,200 10% at $7,250 Average price = $5,681 The gameplan would be to exit if the 50 and 200 Day EMA’s do not support the price and instead get a death cross. That would need to happen with the price below $5,000 and I would expect to exit in the $4,800 neighborhood. That provides a 15.5% risk. This would be done with the assumption that we are entering the next bull market and the upside provides a risk:reward ratio that is good as it will ever get. However, keep in mind that the numbers outlined above will change every day. The EMA’s are moving up every day that the price moves up. Therefore the entries prices are slowly getting worse and the risk is slowly increasing. Furthermore the $4,800 exit is only a projection and with the volatility in BTC anything can happen before the EMA’s recross. Therefore it is extremely important to fully understand the risks of employing this approach. This is an important concept to be aware of. Many people will target a specific price when looking to buy a dip. In reality the price that one should be willing to pay on a dip should increase as the price continues trending up. Buying the Dip Using Trendlines And Bill Williams Fractals Many people are not comfortable with the approach outlined above. I was recently on Tone Vays podcast and he objected to the idea of leaving a Good-Until-Cancel Limit Order on the books to buy a dip. His perspective is perfectly valid and goes to show how there are different strokes for different folks. The approach outlined below is for individuals who prefer to wait for more confirmation of a reversal, following a dip in price, opposed to leaving open orders on the books. This approach is also preferable for individuals who like using set stop losses which provides a more defined risk parameter. A very simple and effective way to identify bull markets is with a bull trendline. As long as price is making higher lows then there should be a best fit trendline that can be drawn to identify areas of support. When price creates a higher high and then pulls back towards a trendline it can represent a great opportunity to establish / increase long exposure. This is usually a lot easier said than done, as is often the case with trading. One of the best ways I have found to time entries when the price is at / near a trendline is with Bill Williams Fractals . Fractals below the price are referred to as down fractals and it is a five candlestick pattern which occurs with the lowest low in the middle and two higher lows on either side. A more aggressive approach only uses three candles, with the low in the middle and two higher lows that surround it. This is another tool that is very simple and can be very effective when combined with trendlines. It provides confirmation that the trendline held as support and that the price is ready to go higher. It also provides a great area for a stop loss, especially on higher time frames. If a down fractal gets violated, even for a moment, then it provides strong confirmation that the trend(line) is broken and therefore a stop loss is warranted. In crypto there are many stop runs and traps. Even those generally fail to violate fractals on the higher time frames, and that is why I think they are a great way to set and trail stop losses. When getting a fractal near a trendline I will look to enter on the second candle following the low, if it trades above the previous candle at any point. This can be done with a Stop Buy Order that is placed right above the high of the first candle that follows the low. This could also be executed with a manual market order as soon as the entry is confirmed. Either way a stop loss should be immediately entered right below the newly printed down fractal. That stop loss stays in place until it is triggered or a new down fractal is established. The stop loss should be trailed just below the new fractal, as soon as it prints on the chart. This is done as a way to keep you in trades that are moving in the desired direction and to immediately exit at the first significant sign of a reversal. If a down fractal is taken out then that generally will represent an established lower low. If that happens on the daily chart then it can often be a good time to exit long exposure and wait to see what happens on the correction. That is especially true on the weekly chart. These entries can also be confirmed with the TD Sequential. If you get a down fractal following a trendline test then a slightly more conservative approach would be to wait for a green 2 trading above a green 1 before entering. This provides further confirmation that the swing low is in and that the price is ready to continue the previous bull trend. This will usually get a worse price than entering on the final candle of the Bill Williams Fractal, however it will often provide a higher probability entry. It is up to individuals to decide for themselves if they prefer going for the best price, or the highest strike rate. When looking at two very viable options I always prefer to go with some sort of combination. If looking to enter X then I believe the optimal strategy is to use the fractal to enter 1/2X and the TD Sequential to enter the other 1/2X. This means I will only be fully entered when the price is moving in my favor and will also limit my exposure / risk when price moves against the first entry. Those are my two preferred methods for Buying the Dip . I find them to be very effective and most important they are approaches that I can trust in the heat of the moment. It will take time and experience to gain trust for any trading technique, that is why I always strongly encourage people to start small, but think big. Eventhough I have learned to trust my dip buying tactics, I still do not employ that approach exclusively. For a number of reasons, primarily psychological, I prefer to compliment my dip buying with consistent Dollar Cost Averaging. This helps to alleviate anxiety when the market is running away from me and is a great way to remain patient while waiting for a dip that seems like it may never come. Furthermore it is a good way to hedge myself and ensure that I am increasing exposure if the dip I am expecting never does come, or if it doesn't come down as far as I'm expecting. Those topics will be covered in depth in the next post titled - Sawcruhteez Strategies: Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
6
Long Term Bitcoin ProjectionThis is my Bitcoin projection. After we fell out of the 1st descending triangle in 2014. We bounced much higher than the bottom, then it was about 77% fall to the bottom. In this 2018/19 Bear Market, we had the 1st descending triangle and fell down to 3k. This bounce we're having now as of 5/11/19, is already past the bottom of the descending triangle which was at 6.1k ish, depending on how you want to draw it. The bounce could go as high as 8500 roughly, and then the drop would be down to about 2k. If we stop bouncing here around 6900/7k. We could drop as low as the 1300 target that the big bears like Tone Vays and Tyler Jenks still have on the table. Many people are calling the current bottom of 3k as the bottom of the Bear Market. But in my opinion, we did not consolidate enough between 3k and 4k. The 3-4 months of consolidation was not enough to signify a bottom. Now with a mega pump from 3k up to 7k as we speak. This is not a sign of a healthy trend reversal. We need a long period of consolidation and healthy growth and trend up in the market. Parabolic pumps generally come crashing back down, just as hard as they pumped up. If we're going to base this current Bear Market off of the last. I expect this current bounce to top between 7k - 8500. Consolidate into another triangle, and then break back down to make new lows between 2000-1300.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Iwinallthamonies
Bitcoin Back Up To 5400 And Then DownI believe Bitcoin has topped from this move, you can clearly see we have reversed of the daily 9 (as pointed out by Tone Vays, through who I discovered this indicator from), and the RSI has given us clear divergence. My only reservation from going Short right now is the spread between Long's and Short's (bottom Indicator, red line = Short's green line = Long's). I would like to see Short's come down significantly before we make a move down, and the only way that will happen is if we see some kind of a squeeze to wipe out the leveraged Short's. I'm thinking this move will take us to around 5400 and could take several days to materialise. It's possible we go higher, but I am very doubtful we can surpass 6k which is significant resistance zones from multiple points such as the 50 week MA, and the massive base of support formed in 2018. So how I plan on trading this is to set sell orders at 5400, and add to it if we proceed upwards from there. If we don't quite make it to 5400, then I will wait until I see an opportunity for entering a position a bit lower. Of course we could drop from here without a squeeze, but it doesn't feel like Bitcoin's ready to do this so obviously.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by kickflip360
BTC Bear market will end between May and Oct 2019There is a clear pattern on log scale that the bear market will end in late May at a price of $2800. The graph shows that the dotted line continues to fall until the point it reaches the long term trendline going upwards. On the other hand, the same analysis has been done on a linear scale and shows that the Bear market will end in October 2019 at a price of $3000. My conclusion is that the bear market will end between May and October at a bottom price of $2800-$3000. Compared with the bear market in 2015 there are many similarities. An import similarity is that the bear market started 9 months before the halvening event in 2016. At current time this would be translated to August 2019. This would be a price of bitcoin just below $3000. However, some analysts such as Tone Vays and Tyler Jenkins predicted the bitcon price would fall to a $1000-$1500 range. Tyler for example used a different method to analyse and he used hyperwave. A good strategy would be to apply DCA in combination of price levels. If you have a bag of 10k available to invest in bitcoin this year I would invest it as follow, starting from 1st of April: Every first of the month - invest $500 (apr-dec = $4500) In combination with: At a price level of $3000 - invest $1500 At a price level of $2500 - invest $1000 At a price level of $2000 - invest $1000 At a price level of $1500 - invest $1000 At a price level of $1000 - invest $1000 And for the rest, just HODL! ;)
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by laurie123
Venzen's Timewave Theory (VTT)Using Time Fibonacci sequence, and adjusting numbers based on the previous wave to find approximate entries/exits and points of interest, I have the following: 0,1, 1.555, 1.845, and 3; low, high, knife catching, end of bear, and next high. The magenta line is a "bars pattern" of the previous 2014-2015 bear market, elongated to match my time frame. I'm kicking myself for not buying the weekly 200MA which lines up with the yearly pivot of 3150, but subconsciously, I believe I am/was still waiting for the penultimate bottom. Credit to Venzen on Tone Vays' channel, for inspiring these ideas. Use my time fib numbers to check out how well these numbers match. I am especially impressed by the "3" aligning with the high of 2017. October of 2023 is the target high of the resurrected bull Let's see how this plays out. -- Toateotihuacan
BNC:BLX
by toateotihuacan
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 327)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: Price being squeezed in between M EMA and L EMA. If breakthough the 50 EMA then a golden cross will follow / be a very attractive entry Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Starting to look like A&E especially on 3d and W | 4h bull flag Horizontals: R: $3,650 | S: $3,569 Trendline: Keeping my eye on this bull TL Parabolic SAR: $3,375 (right in line with the TL above) Futures Curve: Backwardation with 0.78% spread BTCUSDSHORTS: Watching for double bottom or new local low Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% TD’ Sequential: R3 = R2 Ichimoku Cloud: Think cloud above 50 EMA represents little resistance if we can break that area. Relative Strength Index: > 50 Average Directional Index: Pulling back from 25. Watching for support > 20 Price Action: 24h: 0.9% | 2w: +4.3% | 1m: -1.1% Bollinger Bands: Flatten out / squeezing with P > MA Stochastic Oscillator: Daily sell, weekly buy Summary: What a day it has been for me! Around 2:00 this afternoon Leah Wald contacted me to ask if I wanted to be on the Hyperwave Podcast at 4:00 and asked me to prepare roughly half a dozen hyperwaves to discuss. I was tremendously excited immediately accepted. Then I got quite anxious because this was the first time I have done something like that and I had very little time to prepare! When feeling that way I focus on getting into the moment, so I quickly decided to do some meditating, hit up the gym / steam room and eat some lunch before putting together a few charts to discuss. I pride myself in thorough preparation and having less than 1 hour to put charts together made me feel very uncomfortable. However I think I pulled it off pretty well! Don’t think I can share a link so if you are interested go to the Hyperwave channel on Youtube and check out the episode titled: Sawcruhteez and Several Hyperwaves Head is still spinning from that experience. As far as I can tell I am only the fourth guest they have had on the show. Following the likes of Tone Vays, Saifedean Ammous and Ugly Old Goat made me feel extremely honored! If you enjoy the show then be sure to let them know and they might have me on again! Back to the charts… Things have been starting to look more and more bullish over the last 24 hours. The chart posted today is the 4h and that is very interesting to me. Price is consolidating into a bull flag, above the 200 EMA while it postures for a golden cross with the 50 EMA. If that happens it will be the first such Golden Cross since September of 2018. That is the type of indicator that tells me we should be in for a large rally (dead cat). ETH:USD is in a very similar posture but has already gotten the golden cross. This is coming after it appears to have broken through a 7 month bear channel / trend. I added to my ETH long as soon as that golden cross happened and I am expecting it to lead the market into the next big move. XRP is also ripe to pop and either of those large cap coins could absolutely lead a charge that brings BTC back to the $5,200 - $5,800 area. On the other hand if we do not get a strong bounce from here then look out below!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
7